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NFL DFS Projections

A projection is not a forecast of what will happen. It is a distribution, and treating it as a single number is the most common mistake in DFS.

Updated 2026-10-27 · rebuilt daily

Projected points per game

Priced against the current DraftKings slate (14 games, Thu-Mon) — 106 of these players are on it. Sorted by value: projected points per $1,000 of salary.

NFL season-rate projections · 106 players · 2026 season · 2026-10-27
#	Player	Pos	Team	G	FPPG	Salary	Pts / $1k
1	Davante Adams	WR	LAR	6	17.0	$3,000	5.67
2	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	5	16.6	$4,000	4.15
3	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	6	27.5	$7,700	3.58
4	Bryce Young	QB	CAR	6	20.3	$5,800	3.50
5	Kirk Cousins	QB	LV	7	19.2	$5,500	3.49
6	Jared Goff	QB	DET	6	22.5	$6,600	3.41
7	Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	7	16.8	$5,100	3.28
8	Drake Maye	QB	NE	7	21.2	$6,500	3.26
9	Romeo Doubs	WR	NE	6	9.7	$3,000	3.23
10	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	6	22.5	$7,000	3.22
11	Malik Willis	QB	MIA	6	15.6	$4,900	3.18
12	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	6	19.7	$6,200	3.18
13	Michael Penix Jr.	QB	ATL	5	16.3	$5,300	3.08
14	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	7	28.0	$9,100	3.08
15	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB	DET	6	28.8	$9,500	3.04
16	Jordan Love	QB	GB	7	18.9	$6,300	3.00
17	Geno Smith	QB	NYJ	7	15.3	$5,200	2.94
18	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	7	15.8	$5,400	2.93
19	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	7	18.4	$6,300	2.93
20	Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	7	18.6	$6,400	2.91
21	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	6	17.3	$6,000	2.89
22	Jacoby Brissett	QB	ARI	7	16.2	$5,700	2.85
23	Zay Flowers	WR	BAL	6	20.4	$7,200	2.83
24	Kenneth Walker III	RB	KC	6	24.6	$8,800	2.80
25	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	6	18.0	$6,500	2.77
26	Bo Nix	QB	DEN	7	14.0	$5,100	2.74
27	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	7	21.9	$8,100	2.71
28	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	6	21.4	$8,000	2.68
29	Michael Mayer	TE	LV	7	9.5	$3,600	2.65
30	Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	7	19.9	$7,500	2.65
31	Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	5	22.7	$8,600	2.64
32	Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	7	17.2	$6,600	2.61
33	Ashton Jeanty	RB	LV	7	17.4	$6,700	2.60
34	Sam LaPorta	TE	DET	6	13.2	$5,100	2.59
35	Tre Tucker	WR	LV	7	14.3	$5,500	2.59
36	D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	7	17.8	$6,900	2.58
37	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	7	19.9	$7,800	2.55
38	Javonte Williams	RB	DAL	7	18.6	$7,300	2.55
39	Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	6	13.5	$5,300	2.54
40	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	6	17.0	$6,700	2.54
41	Brock Bowers	TE	LV	5	19.3	$7,600	2.54
42	Christian Watson	WR	GB	7	18.5	$7,300	2.53
43	Trey McBride	TE	ARI	7	18.6	$7,400	2.51
44	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	6	14.7	$5,900	2.50
45	Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	6	10.0	$4,000	2.50
46	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	6	12.4	$5,000	2.48
47	Bucky Irving	RB	TB	7	15.8	$6,400	2.47
48	Bijan Robinson	RB	ATL	7	20.8	$8,500	2.45
49	James Cook III	RB	BUF	6	19.3	$7,900	2.44
50	Quinshon Judkins	RB	CLE	6	13.3	$5,500	2.42
51	Derrick Henry	RB	BAL	7	17.4	$7,200	2.41
52	Cam Ward	QB	TEN	7	11.0	$4,600	2.40
53	Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	6	16.3	$6,900	2.37
54	Daniel Jones	QB	IND	7	11.1	$4,700	2.36
55	Parker Washington	WR	JAX	6	15.3	$6,500	2.36
56	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	6	11.7	$5,000	2.34
57	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	6	14.0	$6,000	2.33
58	Luther Burden III	WR	CHI	7	14.0	$6,100	2.30
59	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	7	14.2	$6,300	2.25
60	Keenan Allen	WR	IND	6	10.1	$4,500	2.25
61	Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	6	10.1	$4,500	2.25
62	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	7	9.7	$4,300	2.25
63	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB	WSH	5	9.0	$4,000	2.25
64	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	7	12.3	$5,600	2.19
65	Malik Washington	WR	MIA	6	9.6	$4,400	2.19
66	Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	5	14.0	$6,400	2.18
67	Matthew Golden	WR	GB	7	14.8	$6,800	2.18
68	Carnell Tate	WR	TEN	7	11.3	$5,200	2.18
69	Drake London	WR	ATL	7	15.1	$7,000	2.16
70	Tony Pollard	RB	TEN	7	12.5	$5,800	2.16
71	Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	6	10.9	$5,100	2.13
72	George Pickens	WR	DAL	7	13.9	$6,600	2.11
73	Tyler Higbee	TE	LAR	7	8.0	$3,800	2.11
74	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	6	16.2	$7,700	2.10
75	Denzel Boston	WR	CLE	7	10.7	$5,200	2.07
76	Emanuel Wilson	RB	SEA	7	10.8	$5,300	2.04
77	DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	7	10.9	$5,400	2.02
78	Aaron Jones Sr.	RB	MIN	6	12.5	$6,200	2.01
79	Chase Brown	RB	CIN	6	12.6	$6,300	2.01
80	Jalon Daniels	QB	TB	5	8.0	$4,000	2.00
81	Kyler Murray	QB	MIN	5	11.1	$5,600	1.99
82	Blake Corum	RB	LAR	7	9.9	$5,000	1.99
83	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	5	14.0	$7,100	1.97
84	Ryan Flournoy	WR	DAL	7	9.1	$4,600	1.97
85	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	ATL	6	8.8	$4,500	1.97
86	Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	6	9.9	$5,100	1.94
87	KC Concepcion	WR	CLE	7	9.1	$4,700	1.94
88	Rachaad White	RB	WSH	5	9.8	$5,100	1.91
89	Ollie Gordon II	RB	MIA	6	10.9	$5,700	1.91
90	Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	7	8.7	$4,600	1.90
91	Jeremiyah Love	RB	ARI	5	10.2	$5,400	1.89
92	Michael Wilson	WR	ARI	7	11.7	$6,200	1.89
93	Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	7	10.2	$5,400	1.88
94	Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	6	9.9	$5,300	1.87
95	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	7	7.2	$3,900	1.85
96	Dontayvion Wicks	WR	PHI	6	8.9	$4,900	1.82
97	Braelon Allen	RB	NYJ	7	10.9	$6,100	1.79
98	Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	6	9.3	$5,600	1.67
99	Jaylen Waddle	WR	DEN	7	8.8	$5,400	1.64
100	J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	7	8.3	$5,300	1.56
101	Josh Downs	WR	IND	7	8.2	$5,300	1.55
102	MarShawn Lloyd	RB	GB	7	7.2	$4,800	1.49
103	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ARI	7	6.9	$4,900	1.40
104	TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	6	5.8	$4,600	1.26
105	Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	JAX	6	5.1	$4,400	1.15
106	Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	5	7.6	$6,800	1.12

How these numbers are calculated

Season totals from published play-by-play, scored with DraftKings classic full-PPR values (0.04/passing yard, 4/passing TD, −1/interception, 0.1/rushing and receiving yard, 6/rushing and receiving TD, 1/reception, −1/fumble lost) and divided by games played. Single-game yardage bonuses cannot be recovered from season totals and are excluded, so these figures run slightly below a true DraftKings average.

Salaries come from the current DraftKings slate and change every day; the value column divides the projection by salary, so it answers the question a salary cap actually poses — not who scores most, but who scores most per dollar. The top of that list is rarely the top of the points list.

This is a baseline, not a forecast. It carries no adjustment for opponent, venue, injury or expected game script, and it weights a game in March exactly as heavily as one played yesterday. Use it as the starting point a matchup-aware read departs from, and treat any single figure as the centre of a wide range rather than a prediction.

A number hides the thing that matters

Two players can both project for 14 points and be completely different assets. One is a possession receiver who catches six passes for 60 yards nearly every week. The other is a deep threat who posts 3 points most weeks and 40 when the long ball connects.

In a cash game you want the first. In a large tournament you need the second, because finishing first requires an outcome in the tail — and the steady player has no tail.

Where projections come from

The honest ones are built from workload rather than results: targets, carries, snap share, red-zone usage. Volume is far more stable week to week than efficiency, so a model grounded in opportunity holds up better than one grounded in recent fantasy points.

The remaining inputs are matchup-level: opponent pace, expected game script, and whether the team is likely to be leading (and running) or trailing (and throwing).

Projections do not survive contact with ownership

Knowing a player will score well is only half the problem. If everyone knows, the payoff is split across thousands of identical lineups. The second half of the question — how many other people will arrive at the same answer — is where tournament results are actually decided.