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MLB DFS Projections

Baseball projections carry the widest error bars in daily fantasy. That is a feature of the sport, not a flaw in the model.

Updated 2026-10-27 · rebuilt daily

Projected points per game

Priced against the current DraftKings slate (1 games, MIL @ TB) — 15 of these players are on it. Sorted by value: projected points per $1,000 of salary.

MLB season-rate projections · 15 players · 2026 season · 2026-10-27
#	Player	Pos	Team	G	FPPG	Salary	Pts / $1k
1	William Contreras	C	MIL	11	11.1	$12,900	0.86
2	Christian Yelich	DH	MIL	10	8.3	$11,700	0.71
3	Garrett Mitchell	CF	MIL	11	7.5	$11,100	0.67
4	Jackson Chourio	LF	MIL	11	9.5	$14,400	0.66
5	Cooper Pratt	SS	MIL	11	6.1	$9,300	0.65
6	Chandler Simpson	LF	TB	11	7.4	$11,400	0.65
7	Brice Turang	2B	MIL	11	8.4	$13,500	0.62
8	Taylor Walls	SS	TB	12	3.3	$5,700	0.57
9	Jake Bauers	1B	MIL	11	6.9	$12,300	0.56
10	Yandy Diaz	DH	TB	12	7.8	$14,100	0.56
11	Jonathan Aranda	1B	TB	12	6.0	$12,000	0.50
12	Liam Hicks	C	TB	11	5.1	$10,500	0.48
13	Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	TB	12	4.8	$9,900	0.48
14	Jonny DeLuca	RF	TB	12	4.2	$8,700	0.48
15	Junior Caminero	3B	TB	12	6.7	$14,700	0.45

How these numbers are calculated

Season batting totals scored with DraftKings values (3/single, 5/double, 8/triple, 10/home run, 2/RBI, 2/run, 2/walk, 5/stolen base) and divided by games played. Hit-by-pitch is not published in this feed and is excluded. Pitchers are not included.

Salaries come from the current DraftKings slate and change every day; the value column divides the projection by salary, so it answers the question a salary cap actually poses — not who scores most, but who scores most per dollar. The top of that list is rarely the top of the points list.

This is a baseline, not a forecast. It carries no adjustment for opponent, venue, injury or expected game script, and it weights a game in March exactly as heavily as one played yesterday. Use it as the starting point a matchup-aware read departs from, and treat any single figure as the centre of a wide range rather than a prediction.

Three or four plate appearances is a tiny sample

A hitter gets a handful of chances per game. Even an excellent hitter fails most of the time, and a single game tells you almost nothing about true skill. Projections in baseball describe a very wide range of plausible outcomes rather than a likely one.

This is why baseball rewards volume of entries and correlation between players more than precision on any single name.

Handedness is the first filter

Platoon splits are large and stable enough to be a primary input. A left-handed hitter facing a right-handed starter is in a materially different situation from the same hitter facing a lefty, and lineups are often constructed by managers on exactly this basis.